Are Electric Cars Losing Steam? Analyzing the Latest Trends!
Disruption often follows an s-curve EVS have shown promise for an s-curve but one user had a question for us Daniel wanted to know is it possible that we’re in a point where it’s not an s-curve where it’s flattened out we’re going to go ahead and discuss that I’m Brian welcome to my Tesla
Weekend so uh joining me is Herbert uh from brighter go over there get brighter with Herbert I always do Daniel sent us a tweet to specific spefically to Herbert and I and I we agreed it was worth discussing okay so video idea people are starting to doubt the
Inevitability of EVS thinking that o will be able to game it out for a decade with hybrids and Ice sales let’s take a look and ask is it an scurve I mean f first of all do you think that sales are flattening no absolutely not if you look
At the statistics that uh you’re seeing from just everywhere the sales are skyrocketing everywhere I I think there’s this a sense that um the Us sales have fallen because you’re following the Legacy automakers and what their electric vehicle sales have done and they have definitely not only flattened they’re just plummeting down
Because nobody wants to buy those electric vehicles but if you look at the Us sales of uh the US in 2023 it was at 9% and the expectation for 2024 133% so you is that slower sales than you expected or is that exactly where we
Thought it was then if you look at the survey of electric vehicle of of consumers who are looking to buy a car 50% of them in the US have said that they’re going to buy an electric vehicle the funny thing is it’s actually 49% said that they will buy an electric
Vehicle and 51% they wouldn’t and guess what the CNBC and all the mass media multimedia would talk about right they’re going to talk about the 49 the 51% who don’t want to buy an electric vehicle it’s like uh dude 4% are buy one okay so there is no slowing down down of
This the question is you know the Legacy automakers you got to make sure that they’re U not able to provide it not able to deliver what they want to do so now this Daniel tweet is fantastic because it’s exactly what the conversations we’re having today right we’re just debating this which is you
Know okay what’s going to happen now we know for sure these Legacy auto the mass the mass media what they’re going to do is they’re going to hammer home the fact that there’s not enough chargers for the electric vehicles out there be care careful with range it’s not quite ready
Yet wait for the superchargers to roll out in the meantime hybrids is the best solution and I’ve got some thoughts I could tell you now what’s going to end up actually happening uh but they’re going to put up a great fight on this I I will agree with you Toyota especially
Is doing their best to make as compelling a hybrid as possible to give them a leg to stand on when they ask for more time but it is still an ask and it is still just time so the 49% desire rate is a fun one to me because if you
Look at it there was a tweet by I don’t remember one of the usual doubters on on X who said Oh look The the demand is is still so soft to which James Stevenson at I cannot underscore enough said yes but if you look back year by year it’s
Growing very quickly the number of people saying I will buy an EV is growing to which I pointed out and it is growing faster than the supply can keep up with right now there’s something like four times as many five times as many people who want an EV as who own an EV
And that’s very encouraging but if we look at the country bycount numbers even if we look at the global numbers the curve isn’t quite an S anymore it is not increasing in Pace and I believe there’s a reason for that and I believe the reason is the supply chain just can’t
Keep up building a new big battery Factory 2 three is a lot easier than building well now this year we we need to build six or eight and it’s going to take some time to make that transition to be able to build the capacity to Electrify as quickly as some might like
Uh is is what I’m thinking there now in terms of Desire what one thing do you think could really increase adoption say sometime after mid 25 this this a trick question it is I mean yeah the number one reason the number one decision that I’ve consumer makes when buying a you
Know a very high cost asset like a vehicle right next to a home you’re talking $50,000 is price price price price and we are now at Price parody with gas cars what happens when we fall and cheaper do you think that somebody will go I love me you know I love my gas
Car so much I’m willing to pay $10,000 more the reason why some uh early adopters started buying Electric vehic Les when it was still more expensive than ice cars is because it’s it’s there’s so many advantages um this isn’t this isn’t just you know a different drivetrain there are there are
Considerable advantages that overweigh the concerns of range which is the number two reason people don’t want to buy an electric vehicle yet right it’s price and range price is going to be solved uh very quickly I mean we are at parody now and I’ve seen some forecasts
And we’re talking in the we’re going to break through that price uh you know Equity with gas cars by 2024 2025 and then but in China and in they’re already there in China they’re already cheaper and so I mentioned to you in the previous show that in China
Uh 40% of all new cars sold is an electric vehicle today and that’s because they have Supply they have so many Chinese car companies uh that are out there building electric vehicles the projection is that by June of this year like like less than few just a few
Months from now it’s going to be 50% of all cars sold would be electric vehicles what happens when that happens and the reason why is because they’re able to offer lower priced cars versus here in the US we don’t have a compact car available yet and so it’s like a you’re
Still the high high price points and so it’s hard to decide that based on price so I’ve got a couple thoughts here we are still in the US at least in the carrot phase of the carrot and stick where you will get a nice little benefit
If you buy an electric car in the future it it won’t be that because you can’t when everyone’s buying one you can’t give everyone benefits there’s no one left to pay for the benefits but look at it today in a presentation I gave to the Oregon electric vehicles Association we
Talked about what’s going to happen when the $25,000 car comes into existence if there are still state and federal incentives that 25,000 forget the 10,000 you’re going to say sa in gas just in incentives if you’re in Colorado all of a sudden that car is half priced it’s 12 Grand you
Can’t buy a used car for 12 Grand let alone a new one wow so you take your 10,000 in gas savings that gets you down to 15 you put another 7500 on it uh for your federal I mean you’re down at $7,500 it is at that point impossible to
Consider buying anything else it doesn’t make sense and unlike G cars electric cars still have room for cost improvements an internal combustion engine is very complicated it has a lot of moving Parts all of them precisely machined mil assembled by I exaggerate not a 100 different people each
Workstation in the Ford plant has a worker who puts in one maybe two pieces that’s it and there are just a kazillion stations just to build the motor electric motors you’ve seen them being built they’re done by robots it’s done very quickly and simply the motors are getting cheaper the battery the magnets
Within them are getting cheaper all of the pieces are getting cheaper and it’s so much simpler that it is not unreasonable to assume that a car that you build today would just be5 $110,000 cheaper to build in 5 years what is that going to do to margins to adoption to
Customer satisf faction I mean it’s a lot to think about any thoughts on that yeah I mean well I’m going to add on to that thought which is uh I do think that we should not uh just dismiss what’s going to happen What what will happen this year is these Legacy automakers are
Going to come out strong and putting a lot of fud and disinformation they’re going to advertise this like crazy they’re going to say hybrid’s the right thing don’t buy these electric vehicles it’s not quite ready and they will be able to convince a lot of people that
Electric fiels not and so this is a war we need to come out there and fight back just like we did in 2018 19 and 20 we need to get out there and really communicate the the truth out there so they might slow it down a little bit I’m
Not saying that they can’t because they have money and they have the ability to advertise and they have the ability to sway public opinion and so that could happen but like you just said as prices fall as uh and so my my thing too though
Remember that we’re only in the US 9% of uh all cars sold is electric vehicle it’s going to be 133% it’ll be then 20% so even if this you know a huge chunk of people are still convinced inappropriately for a couple years it doesn’t really impact that because it’s
Like you know there’s still going to be a tremendous growth potential we’re still at the small at the beginning stages Subs so the thing that I think is holding back Global adoption and this may sound counterintuitive is is explosive growth in China China makes most of the world’s EV batteries and
China has strict mandates looming and I believe that a disproportionate percentage of batteries are being routed to China rather than other markets where they could be used now these companies are building factories elsewhere in North America in Europe and as those come online it’ll be something to
Definitely keep an eye on because it will bring prices down it’ll bring availability up and all of that is a win the other thing to remember and I always hear people saying well Japan is hesitant because of uh because they don’t want to be beholden to China and
That sounds great except that batteries don’t have to come from China they can come from Japan they already do Panasonic is one of the world’s leading battery makers they can come from Korea in LG or Samsung they can come from the US uh but the bigger thing is chemistry
I had a chance to talk with a battery expert at the at CES and uh I got to ask him tough questions and he was very excited to talk to somebody at CES who had good questions but one of them was in the next 10 years how many new
Chemistries are we likely to see come online in batteries and he said at most three and I think that’s a great number that’s a lot and I said is is is sodium really close to being there and he said for automotive probably not but it doesn’t matter because there’s always
Applications if you need low density great put the sodium ion batteries in the stationary storage take the lfps they’re using now put those in cars and the cars that are getting lfps now you can move those to high nickel and the whole it just adding more items to the
Buffet you don’t have to add more meat necessarily to the end of the buffet get some more potatoes in there and everybody’s going to be happy because different things for different use cases in this case potatoes uh I think I think I think I got that part right so I’m going to say
That in terms of the scurve I think the numbers are deceptively low I think they’re artificially constrained by the biggest uh by the biggest obstacle being batteries and not by a lack of demand not by a lack of price reductions they just got to get more battery factories
Built and Battery factories take time to come online and if Tesla has taught us anything it’s that the 4680 form factor is a bit bedeviling in terms of getting it scaled and effective um any closing thoughts on that I love what you just said is exactly correct that’s a great
Analysis I think that um at the end of the day I can’t think of another example right when a revolutionary step change new technology comes in and ends up killing the uh the incumbents that somehow the incumbents were able to stop its growth they will trash you know
Thrash and you know do all sorts of things like you’re hearing now and so people are concerned but the end of the day it will fail and you just can’t stop something that is you know 20 times better than the current technology so it’s got a lot of
Built-in uh benefits you know my you know instant torque we didn’t build this to be fast we didn’t build it to be a race car we built it to be a good car but because it’s electric it’s got the instant torque it’s got the incredible power it’s got the quietness it’s got
The these are all byproducts of a system that’s that’s just electric so it’s going to be silly to look back in a few years and think of the the big one and I know you’ve mentioned already is the regulations like Canada and California and and and China and Europe and just
You go on and on and on they’ve all put in regulations this point so I mean I don’t know how you get around that and the the only I think the way that you might get around it is they’re going to lobby and make sure that hybrids is part
Of that so hybrids is part of the IRA hybrids is going to be you know is going to be able to be considered to be an electric vehicle and so that could be the way that they do that and then then it becomes then it becomes beev versus
Hybrid and I’ve had I think it was you that told me that you know just there’s a good explanation why be hybrid just won’t be able to compete with the electric vehicle in cost in weight in performance you’re just you know frankensteining some product that just
Won’t make it it doesn’t make sense for those who love the Ford Lightning super mega frunk how can you tell me that a hybrid with no frunk is somehow better all a sudden it’s almost like these talking points don’t need to make sense as long as it equals Tesla
Bad so guys in the comments what do we miss what do we misunderstand all that good stuff leave it uh brigher with Herbert check him out he is a good friend and an amazing resource thank you so much for joining us for everybody else stay tuned stay juicy and I cannot
Wait to hear from you clever robots on the next one
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Huge thanks to @BrighterwithHerbert for joining the discussion.
Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
#Tesla #TSLA #EVs
