Everyone is waiting for the Model Y refresh. They should’ve done both the 3 and Y at the same time
JRock0703
A car company that builds poor-quality vehicles can only survive on early adopters and FOMOs for so long.
MrEvilFox
You telling me Musk shitposting and all legacy manufacturers jumping into EVs is having an effect on sales?
Crenorz
not a Tesla thing – is a recession / lack of money / interest rate thing. Look at ALL new car sales. It is not going well for many or any at all right now – gas or EV.
So the real question to ask is – how well are they doing vs others?
Example, BYD went from +500k last quarter to +300k this quarter. vs the 8% dip Tesla had.
rossmosh85
This is based on price. I don’t know why people avoid talking about this.
Last year, you could get a Model 3 for $7500 less from the federal tax rebate. That’s a lot of money. That’s not even talking about the $3000-5000 discounts on in-stock product. While the Highland may be an improvement, I don’t think anyone would argue it’s a $7500 improvement, let alone a $10k improvement.
Simply put, Tesla needs to cut prices again if they want to keep selling like they have been.
Otherwise they need to suck it up and live with the fact that these volume numbers are to be expected.
straponkaren
Tesla spent years not giving people buttons or marketing because they were the only game in town, now that they have competition they need to give the people what they have been asking for or they will slowly die. On musk has proven he doesn’t care what anyone wants but himself and investors are selling what they can without cratering the stock before their transactions close. Musk has fucked Tesla and he proudly will not change.
redditcok
My brother got tesla 3, my parent got tesla y. We’re not getting another one and prefer to consider other ev instead. Tesla is not the only ev in town anymore.
WikipediaApprentice
Too much doom and gloom over this.
AbbreviationsMore752
With FSD forever beta. What’s the features separate Tesla from the rest. GIGA gap (panel)?
ITypeStupdThngsc84ju
Lots of weird takes in this thread. The Y was the best selling car in the world last year. It is exceedingly unlikely that its sales could rise meaningfully from there, and that means any economic disruption will result in a sales drop.
They’ve put ~90% of their eggs in two baskets, and ~66% in one basket. The consequences were obvious two years ago, but they did nothing to fix it.
So…. now no growth until 2025 at best.
kenypowa
They didn’t drop enough because Tesla regained #1 BEV title from BYD after BYD dropped 40%.
2CommaNoob
I don’t see any numbers for the truck; did they mention it anywhere?
A_Paradigm_Shift
I’m so sick and tired of the excuses for Elmo and Tesla. It’s 2024, FSD was supposed to be here 6 years ago. Now you have his newer cars with less sensors, less parts, less capabilities and poorer manufacturing. And people wonder why they shit on this guy and the brand? I had 3 Teslas since 2018 and they got worse and unreliable after every software update post USS removal. Honestly can’t wait till this schmuck of a human dissappears.
For those that don’t think there isn’t enough EV options, you’re not doing your homework.
ziadog
Screw Musk!
C0URANT
Why paying Elmo when you can get an Ioniq5/6/EV6
skididapapa
Absolutely no suprise all 4 Tesla models share 70% design language, This is not how you sell millions of vehicles, Last Tesla model introduced 5 years ago, Last BYD model introduced 18 days …..
LotKnowledge0994
I know several people who will never buy a Tesla because of Musks politics and annoying behavior. Like it’s a real thing.
GJMOH
While I think it’s still the world’s most valuable car company I think they have a few headwinds other companies don’t. The benefited from a virtue signaling customer base that isn’t responding well to Elons public statements. The other thing is see is a dated and down right boring design.
WaitingFor45sArrest
BECAUSE ELON MUSK IS A FASCIST
Majal-
We got a model Y in no small part because of the supercharger network.
For the next car, now we have options.
upL8N8
Wowzers. I was expecting bad numbers, but even I didn’t think deliveries would be that bad! Sales were down massively q/q AND y/y.
They added an additional 46,561 vehicles to inventory AFTER reducing production rates by 61,618 units q/q, 7,437 y/y . Since Q1 2023, they’ve added a net 83,965 vehicles to inventory. Since Q1 2022, they’ve added a net 139,725 vehicles to inventory. No doubt some are in transit, but there’s also gotta be plenty sitting in lots, no?
Periods of high inventory aren’t normally a huge deal for established OEMs with vast dealership networks that buy the cars and get them off the OEMs books, while sharing in the costs of inventory… but that isn’t the case for Tesla; those vehicles are on Tesla’s books.
The ‘Other Models’ production figure of 21,000 is interesting. They’ve almost certainly reduced model S / X production, but if they’ve ramped to enough 4680 cells to announce enough for 1000 CTs per week on March 20th, why is this production figure so low? They also had already built up an inventory of cells in preparation for CT production. In Q3 last year, before CT production started, they reported the production of 13,700 Model S/X. If that’s stayed consistent, then they’ve only produced about 7300 CTs in 17 weeks. At 1000 CTs per week, it begs the question of why they added 4000 ‘Other Models’ to inventory. That’s 4 weeks of CT production; surely they could deliver all but 1 weeks’ worth and get them off the books, no? Important as I’ll mention below with regards to the drone footage of Austin.
So when’s Tesla finally planning to announce the layoffs they’ve been doing behind the scenes? (at low enough numbers to avoid reporting requirements from the WARN act.)
Let’s go over again the list of reasons I was pointing out in Q4 last year of why I believed Tesla’s growth wouldn’t exceed 15% y/y in 2024 and may actually be 0% or even decline, and they wouldn’t get anywhere close to that 50% CAGR goal through 2030:
* High interest rates for longer putting pressure on all new vehicle sales. Unlike other large established OEMs, Tesla doesn’t have the ability to offer large interest rate incentives. * Loss of the tax credit on the model 3 * Loss or reduction of the tax credit in Germany and other regions * Significant demand pull forward into 2023 with their huge discounts and with the impending loss of the credits that would stifle sales in Q1/Q2 2024. * Weakening auto sector including increasing auto loan delinquencies and credit card delinquencies… no more people stretching to buy expensive vehicles. * Potentially heading into a recession * Tech sector job layoffs… their biggest customer base * Model Y making up 60%+ of their overall sales, allowing other OEMs to target that model with competition and discounts. * More competition generally in the EV sector. * Chinese competitors growing significantly faster and offering lower priced vehicles; again targeting the model Y specifically. * Elon Musk’s toxicity… “which is more profound than it sounds”… How many people can you alienate before you lose a chunk of your customer base. In the past few years, the man’s made anti-Semitic, anti-minority, anti-Democrat, pro-Chinese (and by extension anti-American), anti-LGBTQIA+, anti-women, etc…
To add some other big item to this list:
* Rising electricity prices proportional to gas prices. Namely in California; their biggest US market by state. * Increasing state registration fees to offset losses in road taxes; some early adopters were getting a free ride.
No doubt, many of these items impact all OEMs, but other companies doing badly doesn’t justify Tesla’s hyperinflated share price.
(Copied from the now deleted thread)
Pure_Effective9805
As EVs continues to gain market share vs ICEs, Tesla’s sales numbers should increase.
Sracer42
In no way could it have anything to do with their leader being a flaming a-hole
Miserable_Day532
They are bad quality cars and their figurehead is crazy person. What’s not to love?
tdm121
I am not surprised that sales decline; I am surprised as to how much it declined y-o-y. y-o-y decline of about 8.5% is pretty big decline. production was 433,371 and sales were 386,810. this will add more to the inventory. For the USA market: I think competition from the RAV-4/hybrid, CR-V/hybrid, Accord/hybrid, and Camry/hybrid is really underappreciated. In q1 USA: toyota/lexus sold 565,098 (growth of 20.3% y-o-y); of those 206,850 were “electrified”: of course, vast majority of electrified vehicles were hybrid. Despite having tax credits, many folks avoid buying a Tesla. In the USA: on 1-1-2024 (start of Q1): model Y inventory was: 2993. Today (start on Q2): model Y inventory: 5639. The price increase probably won’t help in terms of volume (will help with margins).
The reason is Elon Musk acts like a child. A right wing evil child.
sextoymagic
Musk is driving away over half his most likely customers with politics.
Material_Policy6327
Tesla quality is trash for the price so this doesn’t surprise me
chookalana
It’s time for Elon to leave Tesla.
Master-Back-2899
Almost bought a Tesla. Ended up with a bolt because who knows if Elon will disable my car for disagreeing with him on Twitter or decide to stop making parts as part of an imagined liberal conspiracy by him.
If they got rid of him I’d consider a Tesla to replace my next car.
thisisnahamed
They have lots of competition now…
romik13
Finally it’s coming down🚬
xtototo
Tesla had a virtual monopoly on EVs, and now there’s a metric fuckton of competition. That has eaten into both the volume of sales and the price they are able to sell at.
They also got stuck selling only one good product, which is a car. They missed the SUV EV market completely, where there is now competition from Rivian, Mercedes, BMW, etc etc.
Further, there is new competition from ICE cars that have a 35 mile battery pack.
Krom2040
This is anecdotal, but while I was on the fence about Tesla’s software and overall build quality, I would say that Elon Musk ostensibly losing his mind pushed me into the real of not seriously considering a Tesla as an option when I recently purchased an EV. I went with Ford and I’m very happy with the decision.
I also think that Tesla’s PR (which is mostly Musk ranting on Twitter I guess?) is so hyperbolic and exaggerated that I feel like I have to mistrust a lot of things about the company. FSD is clearly not where they say it is and I think it’s strange that they’ve had to go and downgrade their range estimates.
35 Comments
Everyone is waiting for the Model Y refresh. They should’ve done both the 3 and Y at the same time
A car company that builds poor-quality vehicles can only survive on early adopters and FOMOs for so long.
You telling me Musk shitposting and all legacy manufacturers jumping into EVs is having an effect on sales?
not a Tesla thing – is a recession / lack of money / interest rate thing. Look at ALL new car sales. It is not going well for many or any at all right now – gas or EV.
So the real question to ask is – how well are they doing vs others?
Example, BYD went from +500k last quarter to +300k this quarter. vs the 8% dip Tesla had.
This is based on price. I don’t know why people avoid talking about this.
Last year, you could get a Model 3 for $7500 less from the federal tax rebate. That’s a lot of money. That’s not even talking about the $3000-5000 discounts on in-stock product. While the Highland may be an improvement, I don’t think anyone would argue it’s a $7500 improvement, let alone a $10k improvement.
Simply put, Tesla needs to cut prices again if they want to keep selling like they have been.
Otherwise they need to suck it up and live with the fact that these volume numbers are to be expected.
Tesla spent years not giving people buttons or marketing because they were the only game in town, now that they have competition they need to give the people what they have been asking for or they will slowly die. On musk has proven he doesn’t care what anyone wants but himself and investors are selling what they can without cratering the stock before their transactions close. Musk has fucked Tesla and he proudly will not change.
My brother got tesla 3, my parent got tesla y. We’re not getting another one and prefer to consider other ev instead. Tesla is not the only ev in town anymore.
Too much doom and gloom over this.
With FSD forever beta. What’s the features separate Tesla from the rest. GIGA gap (panel)?
Lots of weird takes in this thread. The Y was the best selling car in the world last year. It is exceedingly unlikely that its sales could rise meaningfully from there, and that means any economic disruption will result in a sales drop.
They’ve put ~90% of their eggs in two baskets, and ~66% in one basket. The consequences were obvious two years ago, but they did nothing to fix it.
So…. now no growth until 2025 at best.
They didn’t drop enough because Tesla regained #1 BEV title from BYD after BYD dropped 40%.
I don’t see any numbers for the truck; did they mention it anywhere?
I’m so sick and tired of the excuses for Elmo and Tesla. It’s 2024, FSD was supposed to be here 6 years ago. Now you have his newer cars with less sensors, less parts, less capabilities and poorer manufacturing. And people wonder why they shit on this guy and the brand? I had 3 Teslas since 2018 and they got worse and unreliable after every software update post USS removal. Honestly can’t wait till this schmuck of a human dissappears.
For those that don’t think there isn’t enough EV options, you’re not doing your homework.
Screw Musk!
Why paying Elmo when you can get an Ioniq5/6/EV6
Absolutely no suprise all 4 Tesla models share 70% design language, This is not how you sell millions of vehicles, Last Tesla model introduced 5 years ago, Last BYD model introduced 18 days …..
I know several people who will never buy a Tesla because of Musks politics and annoying behavior. Like it’s a real thing.
While I think it’s still the world’s most valuable car company I think they have a few headwinds other companies don’t. The benefited from a virtue signaling customer base that isn’t responding well to Elons public statements. The other thing is see is a dated and down right boring design.
BECAUSE ELON MUSK IS A FASCIST
We got a model Y in no small part because of the supercharger network.
For the next car, now we have options.
Wowzers. I was expecting bad numbers, but even I didn’t think deliveries would be that bad! Sales were down massively q/q AND y/y.
They added an additional 46,561 vehicles to inventory AFTER reducing production rates by 61,618 units q/q, 7,437 y/y . Since Q1 2023, they’ve added a net 83,965 vehicles to inventory. Since Q1 2022, they’ve added a net 139,725 vehicles to inventory. No doubt some are in transit, but there’s also gotta be plenty sitting in lots, no?
Periods of high inventory aren’t normally a huge deal for established OEMs with vast dealership networks that buy the cars and get them off the OEMs books, while sharing in the costs of inventory… but that isn’t the case for Tesla; those vehicles are on Tesla’s books.
The ‘Other Models’ production figure of 21,000 is interesting. They’ve almost certainly reduced model S / X production, but if they’ve ramped to enough 4680 cells to announce enough for 1000 CTs per week on March 20th, why is this production figure so low? They also had already built up an inventory of cells in preparation for CT production. In Q3 last year, before CT production started, they reported the production of 13,700 Model S/X. If that’s stayed consistent, then they’ve only produced about 7300 CTs in 17 weeks. At 1000 CTs per week, it begs the question of why they added 4000 ‘Other Models’ to inventory. That’s 4 weeks of CT production; surely they could deliver all but 1 weeks’ worth and get them off the books, no? Important as I’ll mention below with regards to the drone footage of Austin.
So when’s Tesla finally planning to announce the layoffs they’ve been doing behind the scenes? (at low enough numbers to avoid reporting requirements from the WARN act.)
Let’s go over again the list of reasons I was pointing out in Q4 last year of why I believed Tesla’s growth wouldn’t exceed 15% y/y in 2024 and may actually be 0% or even decline, and they wouldn’t get anywhere close to that 50% CAGR goal through 2030:
* High interest rates for longer putting pressure on all new vehicle sales. Unlike other large established OEMs, Tesla doesn’t have the ability to offer large interest rate incentives.
* Loss of the tax credit on the model 3
* Loss or reduction of the tax credit in Germany and other regions
* Significant demand pull forward into 2023 with their huge discounts and with the impending loss of the credits that would stifle sales in Q1/Q2 2024.
* Weakening auto sector including increasing auto loan delinquencies and credit card delinquencies… no more people stretching to buy expensive vehicles.
* Potentially heading into a recession
* Tech sector job layoffs… their biggest customer base
* Model Y making up 60%+ of their overall sales, allowing other OEMs to target that model with competition and discounts.
* More competition generally in the EV sector.
* Chinese competitors growing significantly faster and offering lower priced vehicles; again targeting the model Y specifically.
* Elon Musk’s toxicity… “which is more profound than it sounds”… How many people can you alienate before you lose a chunk of your customer base. In the past few years, the man’s made anti-Semitic, anti-minority, anti-Democrat, pro-Chinese (and by extension anti-American), anti-LGBTQIA+, anti-women, etc…
To add some other big item to this list:
* Rising electricity prices proportional to gas prices. Namely in California; their biggest US market by state.
* Increasing state registration fees to offset losses in road taxes; some early adopters were getting a free ride.
No doubt, many of these items impact all OEMs, but other companies doing badly doesn’t justify Tesla’s hyperinflated share price.
(Copied from the now deleted thread)
As EVs continues to gain market share vs ICEs, Tesla’s sales numbers should increase.
In no way could it have anything to do with their leader being a flaming a-hole
They are bad quality cars and their figurehead is crazy person. What’s not to love?
I am not surprised that sales decline; I am surprised as to how much it declined y-o-y. y-o-y decline of about 8.5% is pretty big decline. production was 433,371 and sales were 386,810. this will add more to the inventory. For the USA market: I think competition from the RAV-4/hybrid, CR-V/hybrid, Accord/hybrid, and Camry/hybrid is really underappreciated. In q1 USA: toyota/lexus sold 565,098 (growth of 20.3% y-o-y); of those 206,850 were “electrified”: of course, vast majority of electrified vehicles were hybrid. Despite having tax credits, many folks avoid buying a Tesla. In the USA: on 1-1-2024 (start of Q1): model Y inventory was: 2993. Today (start on Q2): model Y inventory: 5639. The price increase probably won’t help in terms of volume (will help with margins).
source:
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-march-first-quarter-2024-u-s-sales/
https://tesla-info.com/blog/inventory-stats-regional/US?q=4
What about all other auto sales ?
The reason is Elon Musk acts like a child. A right wing evil child.
Musk is driving away over half his most likely customers with politics.
Tesla quality is trash for the price so this doesn’t surprise me
It’s time for Elon to leave Tesla.
Almost bought a Tesla. Ended up with a bolt because who knows if Elon will disable my car for disagreeing with him on Twitter or decide to stop making parts as part of an imagined liberal conspiracy by him.
If they got rid of him I’d consider a Tesla to replace my next car.
They have lots of competition now…
Finally it’s coming down🚬
Tesla had a virtual monopoly on EVs, and now there’s a metric fuckton of competition. That has eaten into both the volume of sales and the price they are able to sell at.
They also got stuck selling only one good product, which is a car. They missed the SUV EV market completely, where there is now competition from Rivian, Mercedes, BMW, etc etc.
Further, there is new competition from ICE cars that have a 35 mile battery pack.
This is anecdotal, but while I was on the fence about Tesla’s software and overall build quality, I would say that Elon Musk ostensibly losing his mind pushed me into the real of not seriously considering a Tesla as an option when I recently purchased an EV. I went with Ford and I’m very happy with the decision.
I also think that Tesla’s PR (which is mostly Musk ranting on Twitter I guess?) is so hyperbolic and exaggerated that I feel like I have to mistrust a lot of things about the company. FSD is clearly not where they say it is and I think it’s strange that they’ve had to go and downgrade their range estimates.