The price of batteries has been cheaper than the $100/kWh threshold that supposedly gated EV/ICE parity for months now:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-09/china-s-batteries-are-now-cheap-enough-to-power-huge-shifts
So outside China, where are all the cost-competitive-to-ICE BEVs?
by pithy_pun
28 Comments
No one besides Tesla and BYD can make EVS and make a profit from them. No one can scale like them so far. And like Sandy Munro said a couple years ago, ”The Chinese are coming.” Gonna lead to more trade wars etc…
Why make EVs cheaper when they could rip consumers off instead?
Automakers lobbied (presumably) to have trade protections placed on Chinese EVs and EV parts, and this year they got their wish with Biden’s tariff increases. It might be protecting American businesses… maybe, but it’s absolutely not helping American consumers.
[https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/)
[https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2024/05/lobbying-by-automotive-companies-increases-as-electric-vehicle-sales-soar/](https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2024/05/lobbying-by-automotive-companies-increases-as-electric-vehicle-sales-soar/)
Edit: I’m in America, I haven’t been following industry and politics for the rest of the world, I can’t speak to that. I realize your post is open to more than just the US, OP.
As batteries have become cheaper, EVs have become bigger, heavier, and have better range with larger batteries.
Most American consumers don’t want a Leaf with a 100 mile range. Most American consumers want an electric midsize SUV with a 300 mile range.
So the 2024 Chevy Blazer EV has 102kwh battery compared to a 30kwh battery capacity in a Nissan Leaf made only 6 years ago.
I’m in New Zealand and we are seeing significant price declines. Very exciting.
Teslas have been going down in price for quite some time now.
It depends I just got a lease for a Polestar 2 for a very good price (compared to the car price)
The base Equinox EV starts at $35k – $7500 tax credit is now a $27,500 car. The base model ICE Equinox starts at $26,600. So it costs $900 more for the EV. You can get a Kona EV starting at $32k. The Bolt was selling for under $27k when it was discontinued. If you are looking for a 3 row 500HP SUV with a 600 mile range for $20k it’s not going to happen.
But many EVs are still selling at a loss so as batteries prices come down they aren’t making money, just loosing less money per car. When the Prius came out it was also loosing money on each sale because the technology was new and expensive. Over time production costs will keep coming down and the prices will fall.
I think a lot of it has to do with these legacy manufacturer’s getting through their first generation EV designs, finding the best way to design systems for evs that reduce complexity and manufacturing costs. I was reading the Kia ev3 includes some new system designs that are smaller, more efficient and easier to manufacture. Despite all the problems with Tesla, and their quality control, the design of the actual motor, and systems in the car is ahead of everyone still, perhaps not for long, but its a game of catch up.
It is cheaper by a lot and used ones even more so
There have been several reasons. EVs have been sold at a loss so savings in batteries has gone to offset losses. Consumers want bigger range so more batteries required. EVs have to meet increasing safety requirements and this adds to their costs
Such a moral dilemma, the world definitely needs cheaper BEVs to survive humanity’s relentless assault on its ecosystem.
Now if that is being provided by China.. so be it. At this point what Elon is using our EV money for is far far worse than anything china can do to USA
It’s been getting cheaper every year in Indonesia
Cars are always just as cheap as they have to be to sell in the desired quantities.
So if they aren‘t getting cheaper they still sell well enough to keep the prices high.
The Chinese cars are bringing it here on Europe. The Xpeng G6 is a bit cheaper than a model Y, comes with all ADAS as standard (€7500 extra for a Tesla).
And in China they’ve just release their most budge tmodel to date. If that makes it to Europe it will put pressure on prices big-time.
Tesla Model Y AWD for the years 2020 and 2024:
2020 Model Y AWD
– **Price**: $52,990
– **Battery Size**: 77.8 kWh
– **Range**: 315 miles
2024 Model Y AWD
– **Price**: $44,380
– **Battery Size**: 82.1 kWh
– **Range**: 330 miles
The 2024 model offers a longer range and a larger battery at a lower price compared to the 2020 model.
Why aren’t mobile phones cheaper… EVs are becoming more and more advanced and as long as consumers are willing to pay for the advancements not just buying last year’s models the real competition will not be on price.
because most manufacturers have not reached scale…so the non EV parts of the car are also more expensive than usual…
When you say cheaper, what do you mean? Relative total cost of ownership for a Nissan Leaf for example (using that as was my first EV 11 years ago) is cheaper today in the UK than back then definitely.
I think in the next few years we may see a steep cost decline in EVs, the 45$/kwh federal rebate for battery production is really massive. When the government designed that policy, batteries were around 120$/kwh, Tesla is likely near 90$/kwh now, with expectation to go down to 70$ shortly.
If Tesla was able to sell a car at 28k break even before, the battery cost dropping by 5k, other manufacturing efficiencies, it very well could be possible for Tesla to sell a model 3 at 20k and still make a profit
LFP pack prices were cut in half in the last year and a half. It takes a while for those prices to make it into car prices. Most EVs aren’t engineered to use the newest, cheapest battery chemistry. It takes lots of engineering and testing. And, that article specifically says it’s the prices in China. The US has the tariffs to prevent China from gaining a true monopoly in the segment.
And car companies are also trying to recover all their engineering costs for those EVs that are out there now, while putting in tons of money to design other EV models.
EV prices have been going down for equivent specs. There’s just a lag between battery prices drops and EV prices. It pretty much needs to whole car release cycle to 100% realize all of the battery pack prices drop benefits.
The 2025 Equinox 1LT we’re going to see in a couple months will be the next step down in EV prices in the US. Should be cheaper than the gas one after rebate. Might be one of the cheapest TCO vehicles in some situations too.
I purchased my Ford Lightning 9 months ago, it was cheaper than the cheapest gas 4×4 with crew cab.
All things considered it was not a super expensive vehicle – the truck it replaced was 9 years old, and the EV was cheaper than that one was when it was purchased new in 2015- and the cost of driving is insane. Between fuel/repairs I went from .4860 per mile down to about .0035. I drive about 2,000 miles per month so that is $972 down to $70 – which recoops the total cost of the vehicle in less than 4 years. I would call that affordable!
Living the dream!
This article is two months old. Batteries might be cheaper to produce but that doesn’t mean automakers automatically get to buy today at the cheaper price. I don’t know the details of automaker contracts with their battery suppliers but I would guess that there is a set price and time period in the supply contract. We’ll have to wait and see if manufacturers are going to share the saving of lower battery costs with the consumers. Its possible that manufacturers will just use these cost saving to put in bigger batteries or other features and maintain price point.
Here in Thailand for example. You can get a BYD Dolphin for $17,000. And that isn’t even the cheapest. Think you can get EVs for $13,000 as well.
They are though?
A Tesla model 3 here in Australia used to cost between $73,900- $102,000AUD for the standard and performance.
Now its $54,900-$80,900
The Cheapest EVs used to be around $65,000, the cheapest you can get now is $37,000
Sure, its not as cheap as a basic new ICE which are around $20,000, but there are plenty of used ones for that price.
They are getting cheaper. But maybe not in America.
Automakers must make revenue/profit off of cars. ICE cars have a lot of profit after sale: service, maintenance, repair(parts). That is (largely) absent in EVs. Consequently they have to get the revenue the only place they can: the sales price. (Or to put it another way: ICE cars were *never* ‘cheap’ they are only sold for *seemingly* cheap because they know once you buy you’re on the hook for the real profitable revenue streams for the next decade or so. The average Joe is too stupid to realize that owning a car costs more than just buying a car.)
Used ones are much cheaper now. Plenty of folks are getting used Chevy Bolts for under $20k OTD with the new tax credit. Model 3s are also cheaper than ever thanks to Hertz offloading their EVs.